Used Lexus ES 300h & Toyota Crown Signia hunt - deciding between the two · ES 300h: 2023-2025, Luxury / Ultra Luxury / Base (Premium Pkg only) · Crown Signia: 2024-2025 Limited · under 45k miles · CPO preferred (Lexus L/Certified / Toyota Certified) · no red exteriors · distances from Thousand Oaks · last updated Sep 3, 2026, 10:00 PM PT(just now)
0cars on the board
0factory CPO
—best advertised price
—best CPO all-in*
OUTREACH
ES 350E
ES 350H
MODEL Y
USED
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CROWN SIGNIA
NEW EV lease outreach - RZ 350e / ES 350e
Updated Sep 2, 2026, 8:40 PM PT · 11 SoCal Lexus dealers · the ask: 36-month / 10k-mi-per-year lease worksheet - selling price, LFS lease cash line item, total due at signing · replies and worksheets land here as they arrive
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2026 Lexus ES 350e - research archive
PROJECT ON HOLD (Yarone, Sep 3, 2026, 7:17 PM PT - "forget the 350e for now") · this tab is a frozen reference copy of the Sep 3, 2026 nationwide research, kept in case the project resumes · sources: Leasehackr broker posts, KBB, CarsDirect, dealer sites (linked inline) · no dealer outreach is active - unsolicited worksheets still land on the OUTREACH tab
Trims & stickers
Trim
Typical sticker
Delta
What it adds
Sources
Premium
~$50.1-50.2k typical
—
Base $48,795-48,895 + $1,295 destination; port/dealer options push real stickers to ~$51k
All 36 mo / 7.5k mi per year, $3,000 drive-off, + tax, Tier 1 credit, broker fee $599-699. June 2026 contrast: the same car ran $680-799/mo (CoastalMotorGroup $680 on 6/19, MoteurDeLaVie $755 on 6/8, ClutchMotors $799 tax-incl on 6/8) - the September programs are dramatically better.
Mid-pack: in line with Monarch ($549 on $53k) and PMI ($535), ~$50-75/mo above GCauto/ChromeStallions with First EV. The 8.8% discount is genuinely strong for a launch model; the gap to brokers is the MyFirstEV rebate and possibly MF markup.
Program notes
No national ES incentives: KBB's ES page (updated 9/2/26) lists zero - no national lease cash or APR subvention. But CarsDirect (updated daily) shows 2026 ES financing "as low as 3.99% APR" through Lexus Financial Services, so a purchase-rate subvention does exist.
MyFirstEV (LFS first-time EV lessee program) is the swing factor: ~$40-95/mo on broker quotes. One forum note (cruiserchuck, 9/2) says base MSRP must be under $50k to qualify (ES base $47.5k qualifies) - unverified whether the cap reads base or actual MSRP, since loaded Premiums sticker $51k+. Household EV history never confirmed.
Purchase band: 5-9% off MSRP is realistic this month (Lexus San Diego advertising 4.7% off a $51,328 Premium; the Keyes sheet implies 8.8%). 8-9% off with no add-ons = the strong end.
LFS September buy-rate MF/residual never confirmed publicly (RateFindr paywalled; no ES rate thread yet). Keyes' 0.00150 is the only live data point - buy rate vs markup unknown.
RZ $16,500 lease-cash rumor DEBUNKED: Leasehackr 8/13 thread - broker Jeff_BeachCitiesAuto: "$7,500 incentive expired way back in October of last year; $5,500 is the maximum rebate for August unless college grad or military"; the IRC 45W commercial credit died for vehicles acquired after 9/30/25. KBB's RZ page shows zero RZ incentives. The $16.5k figure traced to AI output, not LFS.
Luxury inventory thin: one in transit at Freeman Lexus Santa Rosa ($64,938, likely Exec Pkg, ETA 9/22-10/10); Keyes has one in stock; no clean SoCal count without a lexus.com inventory pass. Expect Luxury payments around Premium + $120-150/mo at the same program.
Lexus ES 350h - new-hybrid watch (Yarone's next car, target ~March 2027)
ACTIVE WATCH - started Sep 3, 2026 · target: a NEW ES 350h in about 6 months (around March 2027) · quiet monthly check-in on inventory, pricing, and Lexus incentives - this tab updates when something notable changes · no dealer contact · the used ES 300h hunt stays paused (USED tab is a frozen reference; it doubles as the new-vs-used comparison when the time comes)
8th-generation ES. The ES 350h is the direct successor to the 2025 ES 300h: first Lexus with Toyota's sixth-generation hybrid system, more power, and the first AWD option on an ES hybrid. Reached US dealers June 2026.
Powertrain: 2.5-liter 4-cyl + hybrid, 244 hp combined (FWD and AWD), e-CVT. AWD adds a 54-hp rear e-motor (on-demand rear axle, up to 20:80 front:rear).
No national Lexus ES lease cash or rebates - KBB's ES deals page (checked 9/2): "no available Lexus ES incentives". Dealer discount + standard LFS programs are the whole game.
Financing: 3.99% APR available on 2026 ES (CarsDirect). No published subvented lease.
SoCal broker leases (9/3, 36 mo / 7.5k mi / $3,000 drive-off, + tax): ES 350h Premium (~$55k MSRP) ~$619/mo · Premium+ (~$57k) ~$659/mo - Monarch Auto Group, Leasehackr. The electric ES 350e leases far cheaper on similar MSRP (~$455-549/mo, see ES 350E tab) thanks to EV program support - the hybrid carries no such help yet.
Read: the 350h is 3 months into launch - demand fresh, discounts thin. History says Lexus lease support builds through the model year.
Timing - when to buy
Jun 2026: ES 350h reached dealers (2026 MY).
Sep 2026: 2027 MY arriving (+$105-110, nothing else changes). Buying now = launch pricing with zero lease cash.
Mid-Nov 2026 - early Jan 2027: "December to Remember" - historically Lexus's strongest national sales event. First realistic window for lease cash or deeper APR support on the ES.
Feb-Mar 2027 (his window): 2027 inventory deep, Q1 programs possible, and any leftover 2026s would carry the steepest discounts.
Take: waiting costs nothing - same car, only the deal moves. Checkpoints: December to Remember first, then the February-March window he named.
What the monthly check watches
National ES incentives (KBB / CarsDirect) · SoCal broker ES 350h quotes (Leasehackr) · local inventory at Lexus of Thousand Oaks, Keyes Van Nuys, Oxnard, Woodland Hills, Santa Monica · 2027 MY news · updates land here only when something notable changes. First snapshot: Sep 3, 2026.
Used Tesla Model Y "Juniper" (2025+ refresh) - quiet watch
ACTIVE WATCH - started Sep 3, 2026 · target: a USED refreshed Model Y (2025+ "Juniper" styling), main reason: FSD · folded into the same quiet monthly check-in as the ES 350h - this tab updates when something notable changes · no dealer/seller contact
What "Juniper" is - and how to spot it
The Model Y refresh (code name Juniper) started US deliveries March 2025: full-width light bars front and rear, revised front/rear styling, updated interior with ambient lighting and a rear passenger screen, retuned suspension, quieter cabin.
Watch out: "2025" on a listing does NOT guarantee Juniper - early-2025 builds are the old body. Tell by the photos: light bar across the front = Juniper; separate headlights = pre-refresh. Build date (door sticker / VIN decode) settles it.
The FSD angle (why this car)
FSD (Supervised) is now subscription-only in the US: Tesla ended the $8,000 outright purchase option Feb 15, 2026. Current price $99/mo, and Musk says it rises as capabilities improve. Sources: Teslarati 2/15/2026 · Tesla support.
Practical read: every 2025+ Model Y already has the HW4/AI4 hardware - FSD is a software subscription you turn on for $99/mo. So there is no reason to pay a used-car premium for "FSD included" (a purchased-FSD car from before Feb 2026 keeps it for that car's life, but that is rare and usually priced in). Any clean HW4 car + $99/mo gets him the same thing.
Market snapshot (Sep 3, 2026)
Local data point: CarMax Oxnard - 2025 Model Y Long Range AWD, 36,935 mi, $35,998 (listed 8/31; ~$1,630 under the $37,628 typical-market figure for that listing). Oxnard is the closest big used source to Thousand Oaks. NOTE: refresh status of that unit not verified yet - "2025" alone doesn't prove Juniper.
Thin used-Juniper supply is expected - the refresh is barely 18 months old, so most used stock is lease returns and early flips. Supply builds through 2027 as the first big lease wave matures.
What the monthly check watches
Tesla's own used inventory + CarMax / Carvana / CarGurus within ~100 mi of Thousand Oaks for verified Juniper cars (photo-checked light bar, build date) · asking-price movement on 2025-2026 Long Range · any FSD pricing change ($99/mo today, increases telegraphed) · updates land here only when something notable changes. First snapshot: Sep 3, 2026.
Used Lexus ES 300h - the national list
Updated Sep 2, 2026, 5:45 PM PT · distances from Thousand Oaks · lanes: ES 300h - Luxury · Ultra Luxury · Base (Premium Package ONLY - heated+ventilated seats, seat memory, rain-sensing wipers, heated steering wheel required), 2023-2025 · under 45k miles · CPO preferred · any color EXCEPT red (red exteriors excluded, all shades) · F Sport Design + F Sport Handling excluded (NuLuxe seats - MY24 brochure)
Sorted by recommendation score - tap any column header to re-sort. Score = quality first: interior condition, seller, warranty, miles - price breaks ties. *ESTD. OTD = advertised + est. CA tax 7.25% + est. doc fee ($85 CA / per-state elsewhere) + est. DMV ~1.2% + shipping (CarMax/Carvana rows: real listed delivery fee, no doc fee). Low end = realistic negotiated price for this car's seller type and days-on-lot; no-haggle sellers show a single number. ESTIMATE ONLY - not a written quote.
Sweep in progress - verified cars land here as they come in.
Closest photo-verified cars to Thousand Oaks worth going to see - Lexus ES 300h and Crown Signia (CROWN rows). Drive = one-way miles from Thousand Oaks.
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Used Toyota Crown Signia Limited - the national list
Updated Sep 2, 2026, 8:10 PM PT · distances from Thousand Oaks · 2024-2025 Limited · under 45k miles · Toyota Certified (TCUV) preferred - CarMax non-CPO lane marked · red excluded · 21-inch stock wheels on Limited · Storm Cloud = favorite color (green)
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No Crown rows yetFirst verified Crown Signia rows land here when the Toyota CPO sweep delivers.
2025 Lexus ES 300h Luxury vs 2025 Toyota Crown Signia Limited
Both used, both Toyota 2.5-liter hybrids. One is a sedan tuned for isolation; the other is a wagon tuned for space. "Edge" marks which car is better on that row for someone whose priorities are ride, luxury, 10-year cost and reliability.
Lexus ES 300h Luxury2025 · used · sedan · FWD
Toyota Crown Signia Limited2025 · used · wagon/crossover · AWD
Edge
Verdict
If a sedan works for you, buy the ES. It wins the two things that matter most to you, ride and luxury, and it's the more proven car. Nothing about the Signia is nicer except its cargo hold.
If you need the hatch regularly, buy the Signia and don't look back. It's an RX 350h for $15K less, still comfortable by any normal standard, and the money you save roughly covers a decade of the ES's fuel advantage.
If you go Signia, consider the XLE. Same leather, same heated and ventilated seats, same screen and safety kit, on 19" wheels that ride smoother and quieter than the Limited's 21s, for $3–5K less. You give up the glass roof, JBL audio, digital mirror and rain-sensing wipers.
Drive them the same afternoon on the same freeway stretch. The one you stop thinking about is the one to buy.
Costs assume 12,000 mi/yr for 10 years, regular gas at $5.25, Southern California. Net 10-year cost = purchase + fuel + maintenance and tires − estimated year-10 resale. Insurance excluded. Cabin noise is an estimate at a steady 70 mph. Some specs are approximate; verify on the specific VIN.
Lexus ES 300h — Base + Premium vs Luxury vs Ultra Luxury
2023–2025 model years; all three are mechanically the same car. Everything in the powertrain, suspension, safety and reliability sections is identical — the trims differ only in seats, trim, screen, wheels and a few conveniences. "Edge" marks the better value on that row for a buyer who cares about ride, cabin feel and 10-year cost.
Base + Premium PackageNuLuxe · 17" wheels · the value play
Luxuryleather · wood · 18" wheels · the sweet spot
Ultra LuxuryLuxury + HUD, power trunk · the full kit
Edge
Verdict
Luxury is the one to buy. It's where the cabin becomes a real luxury car — semi-aniline leather, a 14-way seat, wood, ambient light, the big screen — and it's the volume trim, so there's plenty of used supply and off-lease stock. The extra $4–6K over a Base+Premium buys things you'll notice every single drive.
Base + Premium Package is the right call only if you'd rather bank the $4–6K and you can live with NuLuxe seats and, on most of them, the 8" screen. Ride is fractionally softer on the 17" wheels. Insist on the Premium Package — a stripped base car has no seat memory, no ventilated seats, no heated wheel — and look for one with the Navigation Package if you want the 12.3" screen.
Ultra Luxury only if it's within ~$1,500 of a Luxury. The head-up display and hands-free trunk are genuinely nice; they aren't worth $3–4K, and Ultra Luxury is rare enough that holding out for one narrows your search for no real gain.
Mileage and price beat trim year on all three — a 2023 Luxury with 30K miles is a better buy than a 2025 Base+Premium with 10K.
Used prices are September 2026 estimates for clean, one-owner cars. Some feature details vary by model year and by package — verify on the specific window sticker (Monroney), which any Lexus dealer can print from the VIN. Net 10-year cost assumes 12,000 mi/yr, regular gas at $5.25, Southern California, and subtracts an estimated year-10 resale.
